Ahead of next saturday’s election, we (ViewPointNigeria) have spent time analysing and dissecting results of the March 28th presidential election in Plateau – in order to glean rare insights into the potential outcome of the April 11th gubernatorial elections. We analysed results from each Local Government Area, considering variables and factors which may have triggered or caused people to vote one way or the other. We considered tribal allegiances, age demographics, political alliances, religious factors, political balances and grudges amongst many other factors.

Ahead of next saturday’s election, we (ViewPointNigeria) have spent time analysing and dissecting results of the March 28th presidential election in Plateau – in order to glean rare insights into the potential outcome of the April 11th gubernatorial elections. We analysed results from each Local Government Area, considering variables and factors which may have triggered or caused people to vote one way or the other. We considered tribal allegiances, age demographics, political alliances, religious factors, political balances and grudges amongst many other factors.

From the results obtained, we forecasted/predicted the potential outcome of the Plateau gubernatorial election – based on the voting pattern of the March 28th elections. I must pause here to state clearly, that this is simply a forecast of our view of what may happen at the polls and is by no means set in stone. We appreciate that our analysis may be prone to inaccuracies or errors and we fully take ownership for those – but for now, we are very confident that these forecasts are reliable to a high degree – and make bold to say that unless something drastic changes within PDP in the next few day (e.g., a change in political strategy) – the likely outcome would be what we are presenting here.

Key findings from our analysis

– a. APC has a slight lead/advantage, but PDP is not too far behind – The race will be tight, but expect APC to carry the day if PDP does not re-strategise over the next few days. Also, given that PDP has said the distribution of PVCs was lopsided, only a change of strategy will present a chance of a win for them.

– b. “The Buhari” factor appears to have re-invigorated APC in Plateau – there appears to be a “calm re-assurance” and confidence about APC since March 28th 2015.

– c. PDP appears to still be reeling from the shock of the loss of Goodluck Jonathan to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. It seems PDP was only working with “Plan A”. And that is the scenario that Goodluck Jonathan will win. Now that he hasn’t, there appears to be no “Plan B” and things seem to be in massive disarray.

– d. Similar what led to the loss of Goodluck Jonathan on 28th March 2015, a lot of the party stalwarts in Plateau appear to be working against the party – a large number of politicians within PDP, are overtly and covertly working towards the actualisation of the ambition of Simon Lalong.

– e. Expect a lot of local governments that voted PDP in the March 28th Presidential election to swing the other way towards APC. Especially in the Southern and Central Senatorial zones.

– f. Plateau being a legacy PDP state, has a natural inclination to PDP, so it would be foolish to write-off the party at this stage. If the PDP changes its political strategy in the next few days or if it re-builds some of its old alliances, it could bounce back.

Note: We have conveniently excluded Amb. Bagudu Hirse and other fringe candidates from our analysis for simplicity.

1. Analysis of the voting patterns of the Presidential Election of 28th March 2015 in Plateau

In case you missed it, below is a chart of the results of the March 28th elections by Local Government Area.

1.1. Analysis of what happened at the Presidential Polls

A. Southern Senatorial Zone

In Langtang North and South the overall verdict was clear, the influence of popular candidates like J T Useni, Beni Lar and other PDP leaders swayed the electorate to PDP. The political clout of Brig. Gen John Shagaya (rtd) was insufficient to usurp the influence of Gen. J T Useni, Beni lar and Victor Lar combined. Even though Langtang is one of the regions which has been the most vocal about marginalisation in Plateau PDP, they appeared to put that firmly behind them by voting PDP – will they do the same in the gubernatorial election? …….Keep reading.

Shendam and Qu’anpan – Shendam being the home turf of Simon Lalong was always going to be a difficult challenge for PDP. However, PDP still pulled significant votes – only losing by a margin of 3,500 votes. This is a very respectable margin, considering Hon. Pauline Tallen, Fidelis Tapgun, John Alkali and others all hail from this LGA. Qu’anpan was however different, APC was only beated by a respectable margin of approx. 3,500 votes. The victory of PDP in this area is slightly surprising because people of this LGA still feel robbed of a chance to govern (through Amb. Ignatius Longjan).

In Mikang, Daniel Kungmi (the former chairman of the council and current DG of the GNS Pwajok campaign organisation), did a good job of winning over undecided voters in the area. Ordinarily, one would have thought the voting pattern would be similar to Shendam – but Kungmi appears to have demonstrated his political value by delivering in this locality.

Wase – As expected, PDP stood very little chance in this LGA. The electorate voted massively for APC, giving Buhari 35,940 votes (against 11,746 from PDP).

B. Northern Senatorial Zone

As expected, Riyom, Barkin Ladi and Jos-South voted overwhelmingly for PDP. The fringe votes that APC garnered in those areas were mainly from communities such as Farin Lamba (Riyom), Atakar (Riyom), Ganawuri (Riyom), Sabon Layi (Bukuru), Angwan Doki (Bukuru), Kasuwa (Jos South) and Gyero (Jos South) and the Fulani communities of Barkin Ladi LGA. This is not to say APC did not get votes in other areas, but these are the main areas that votes for APC came from.

In Jos North, APC had a very strong showing around Bauchi Road, Zololo Junction, Angwan Rogo, Angwan Rimi, Kwararafa etc. Several Hausa Fulani youth came out en masse to vote for Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. PDP also picked up significant amounts of votes in areas dominated by Igbos and other indigenous tribes such as in areas like West of Mines, Enugu Street, Zaria Road, Rock Haven, Angwan Rukuba, Legislative Quarters, Tudun Wada, Federal Lowcost, State Lowcost etc.

C. Central Senatorial Zone

The central zone was the battle ground zone of the elections. Votes were split between PDP and APC in a variety of LGAs in this zone. For instance, In Mangu and Kanam, APC significantly trounced PDP by high margins, but in Pankshin, Kanke and Bokkos, PDP won the battle hands down. In Bokkos the victory was firmly attributed to Joshua Dariye, having decamped to the PDP and therefore lending his clout to the party. In Pankshin and Kanke however, we believe people were trying to maintain the PDP legacy at the presidential level – even though a lot of them appear aggrieved with the PDP leadership at the state.

2. Our Projection of the likely outcome of the upcoming Gubernatorial Polls of 11th April 2015

Below is a chart of what we assess may happen at the gubernatorial polls of Saturday 11th April 2015. Note, we have rounded-up all the numbers below because these are only nominal figures and do not represent actuals -so our numbers will differ from the chart above because of changes of voter count in the two week period.

2.1. Analysis of our projection for the Gubernatorial Elections

Our analysis shows that the race will be a close one, but that Simon Lalong of APC currently has the edge. I must caution, that this assertion is only based on what has happened since the Presidential elections of 28th March 2015. If PDP revamps it calumnious attacks of religious bigotry etc on APC, then expect to see massive upsets, because such sentiments traditionally feed the fears of Plateau electorates. We saw that in 1991, when Amb. Bagudu Hirse was maliciously said to have converted from Christianity. So in summary, unless something changes drastically in the next few days – the APC can count their luck.

Note: the results presented above have been normalised to only be indicative of what might potentially happen, we fully appreciate that our analysis will be off in certain aspects – but we remain confident of the general premise of our assertions.

A. Southern Senatorial Zone

Langtang North and Langtang South – We forecast that these zones may vote differently to what they did in the Presidential election. We know that J T Useni and Beni Lar had a massive influence on the overall results for PDP on March 28th 2015, and now that the election has moved to the state level, these principals may not be able to change the minds of the people who have consistently said that they have been marginalised. Unless, if J T Useni and other principals come out firmly to claw back votes for PDP, it may be an embarrassing defeat here. It would be recalled, that Useni also had his firm disagreements with Plateau PDP over the past few years, when he was barred from joining the PDP – the extend to which their relationship has mended, will be important here.

In Shendam, Qua’an Pan and Wase – we assess that the voting pattern shall remain the same (i.e., overwhelmingly in favour of APC), but that the margins of victory may increase significantly. Reason for this is the “Buhari Victory Effect” which has emboldened many people to push for an overhaul of government. Mikang may not change much and may be won by PDP or at best APC by a very small margin.

B. Northern Senatorial Zone

Do not expect massive changes in the voting pattern of Barkin Ladi, Riyom or Jos South – these areas will be overwhelmingly in favour of PDP (even though we think some of the Hausa-Fulani voters who painstakingly voted for Buhari may not bother to vote in this election because they may feel they do not have representation amongst the two choices). A similar situation will be evident in Jos North, expect to see an overwhelming showing for the APC, but again the number of votes in this election may be lower than that of the presidential polls.

In Jos East, expect to see a larger winning margin by APC, as voters show their grievance to what they adduce as the seizure of the mandate of Mrs. Eunice Sambo. In Bassa, the Chris Hassan factor may have fizzled out, and the race would perhaps be tighter than initially seen.

C. Central Senatorial Zone

This is the most difficult zone to call. In Kanke and parts of Pankshin, expect the “Yilji Gomwalk” factor to come into play. This may potentially sway votes in Kanke towards the PDP, but expect the fight to be tougher in Pankshin – especially in Lankan, Chip and other districts where people appear more sympathetic to APC.

Bokkos will also be tricky – Chief Joshua Dariye has made it into the upper house and has little to lose at this stage. Unless if he works vigorously for PDP, there would be a massive loss in this LGA. Already, people are speculating that he may be on the verge of decamping to APC. If this is true, then consider this LGA an APC stronghold.

Kanam – Not a lot will change in this area. Most people shall vote APC overwhelmingly. Unless if PDP can pull something special out of the bag, the loss here could be very significant.

Mangu – it would be recalled that the Miskaham Mangu has previously endorsed Prof. Sunny Tyoden as the only Mwaghavul candidate of choice. Well, that blessing appears to have paid off, as they voted APC overwhelmingly during the past election. Going forward, we believe that may still be the case -Mangu will remain an APC LGA.

3. Conclusion

The election will be tighter than a lot of people anticipate. APC in Plateau appear to have been buoyed by Buhari’s victory and are currently enjoying a marginal lead – but PDP is not too far behind. With a few changes to PDP’s currently strategy, they could be back in contention.

ViewPointNigeria (C)

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ViewPointNigeria’s Projection of Potential Outcome of Plateau Gubernatorial Elections