Tick tick tick tick tick……….. is the sound of the clock counting down to the much coveted PDP primaries tomorrow – Monday 8th December 2014! Candidates are making their final passionate appeals to delegates. Delegates are consulting the people to decide how to lean, and entire people of Plateau (yourself and myself inclusive) are waiting with baited breath to see what would happen. This is the state of affairs on the Plateau currently!
There is no doubt that for PDP, the race to the Rayfield Government house is a two horse race, between Ignatius Longjan and GNS Pwajok. This is not to say that other candidates are not significant, their support base just appears to be lower compared to that of these two. The two gladiators (Longjan and Pwajok) have demonstrated over and beyond their capacity to lead -they both have over the past few years been the closest people to Jonah Jang and fully understand the workings of his government.
Tick tick tick tick tick……….. is the sound of the clock counting down to the much coveted PDP primaries tomorrow – Monday 8th December 2014! Candidates are making their final passionate appeals to delegates. Delegates are consulting the people to decide how to lean, and entire people of Plateau (yourself and myself inclusive) are waiting with baited breath to see what would happen. This is the state of affairs on the Plateau currently!
There is no doubt that for PDP, the race to the Rayfield Government house is a two horse race, between Ignatius Longjan and GNS Pwajok. This is not to say that other candidates are not significant, their support bases just appears to be significantly lower compared to that of these two.
The two gladiators (Longjan and Pwajok) have demonstrated over and beyond their capacity to lead -they both have over the past few years been the closest people to Jonah Jang and fully understand the workings of his government.
Analysis: Who is likely to win?
GNS Pwajok was anointed by Jang and as such the entire machinery of Government is behind him. The financial might of the government, the political structures of the PDP and the power of incumbency are all carrying him on their wings. Evidence of the importance of the power of incumbency can be seen in the results of yesterday’s House of Reps primaries, where virtually all candidates backed by the government won their seats. Further evidence can be seen in the recent House of Assembly Primaries -where again all government candidates won. In a previous article, we alluded to the fact that a new political dynasty/political order similar to the hitherto feared Tarok Mafia appears to be at its infant stages of formation on the Plateau -and if established may reign for generations (whether that is good or bad, I shall let you judge).
There is no doubt that the wind is firmly behind GNS Pwajok -the wind of incumbency that is. With such, power behind one, in a Nigerian setting, it is difficult to see how an upset would be created, unless something very dramatic ends up happening. That dramatic happening for instance, would be that the delegates stage a mutiny and overwhelmingly vote a particular candidate perhaps. Would that happen? What are the chances? Has Dakum Shown done enough to cause disaffection with the PDP ranks and get delegates to rethink? These questions are hard to answer at this stage, but tomorrow shall answer all the questions.
Ignatius Longjan – With such an amiable nature, Ignatius Longjan would be a pleasure to have as Governor following Jang’s 8 years of governorship (which many people describe as draconian because of the hard stance of the Governor). Longjan is very different to Jang, in lots of ways you, could describe him as the antithesis of Jang -he is soft spoken, diplomatic and very agreeable. Several people find his nature very attractive and have branded him the Loyal deputy, because of his unquestionable loyalty and support to he Jang administration throughout the tenure. Some have however argued that given his soft and amiable nature, he may not be able to handle the governance of a complicated state like Plateau -well, that remains to be seen. But history has shown that a soft and kind nature does not usually denote weakness.
Can he (Longjan) create an upset tomorrow? It is very possible if consensus between all other candidates is arrived at, but at the moment, the odds appear firmly against him. He would have to pull something really special out of the bag for him to win. He hails from the Southern zone and is banking that a lot of the delegates in the area and the central zone to vote for him, but there are also other candidates in this zone who are equally vieing for the nomination and would undoubtedly split the delegates votes. Fringe aspirants like Fidelis Tapgun, Prof. Sunny Tyoden, Jimmy Cheto, Prof Wapmuk, Godfrey Miri etc would undoubtedly get votes from delegates, hampering the chances of Longjan. In the Northern zone however, only GNS Pwajok and a few other candidates like Chris Bature are running -and as has been seen in recent elections, Jang has already mobilised the entire delegates behind him. Could these delegates stage a mutiny and vote otherwise? Well, that remains to be seen -tomorrow is only a few hours away, we shall see!
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