It is an open secret that Barr. Simon Lalong enjoys immense goodwill from Plateau PDP, even though he is an APC governor. This is hardly surprising because  he won the 2015 gubernatorial race through the combined efforts of traditional PDP voters and by the contribution of over 80% of Plateau PDP elders, who worked against their party to gift victory to APC.

PDP stalwarts like Joshua Dariye, Fidelis Tapgun, Haruna Dabin, John Alkali, Victor Lar, Jimmy Cheto and a host others who are chieftains of the PDP, crossed party lines to lend support to the candidature of Simon Lalong, in a rare cross-party political cooperation, never seen before.

And even having won the election on 11th April 2015, the cooperation between these PDP stalwarts and the new APC regime appears to be waxing stronger. For instance, two weeks ago – following the first round of the keenly contested speakership race between Hon. Istifanus Mwansat of PDP and Peter Azi of APC, Azi won, even though APC only had 11 members in contrast to PDP’s 13. It was clear that following the first deadlock, when both party candidates got 12:12 votes, Istifanus Mwansat was prevailed upon to step down for Peter Azi in the interest of equity and fairness. The people who prevailed on Mwansat to give up his ambition, were again PDP elders. This is dissimilar and an anti-thesis of what happened at the national level where PDP pulled-off a coup-like strategy to install Saraki as speaker and secure the Deputy Speakership of the House.

This massive sacrifice done by Plateau elders for the APC means PDP has handicapped itself in the coming 2019 election, because PDP now controls no (i.e., zero) principal offices in the state. And if the permutation of these “sacrificial” PDP elders is that the house members can use their numerical strength to impeach Peter Azi nearer 2019 to install a PDP speaker, then that is only wishful thinking, because two-third majority (66%) is required to impeach a speaker and the PDP only has approx. 54% majority. This puts Peter Azi at a very strong/tenable position because he knows that PDP honourable members cannot impeach him (because they lack two-third majority) and the APC cannot afford to either because of the risk that PDP can use its numerical strength to install Mwansat during any future leadership tussle (Note: election of speaker is by simple majority, but impeachment requires two-third majority). So it appears PDP elders have cleared the coast and have removed all obstacles, so that Simon Lalong can have a smooth governorship.

Back to my point about the cooperation between PDP elders and APC. Joshua Dariye (who worked tactically and assiduously) to install Letep Dabang as APC chairman and subsequently Simon Lalong as Gubernatorial flag bearer, appears to be mentoring and guiding Simon Lalong in these early stages of his administration. This can be seen clearly by the calibre of appointments that Lalong has made. Almost all of the individuals currently appointed (except two), are principal lieutenants of Joshua Dariye.

For instance, John Dafa’an who Lalong appointed Chief of Staff Government House, was Joshua Dariye’s Director of Protocol during his second term in office. Rufus Bature whom Lalong appointed SSG, was the Chief Minority Leader of the Plateau State House of Assembly (ANPP) when Lalong was speaker in Dariye’s second term, Prof. John Wade who was appointed DG research was the first VC of the Solomon Lar University Bokkos, again appointed by Dariye.

Given this trend, we (ViewPointNigeria) forecast that Simon Lalong’s cabinet, which is imminent any time now will equally feature a lot of ex-PDP members (predominantly those who served within the Dariye administration). We expect the cabinet to be all encompassing, with most ethnic groups represented and the average age within the cabinet being the mid to late 40s. Also, several PDP elders who worked assiduously for the APC victory in the state will be given slots to fill/nominate, within the mix of commissionership, permanent secretary and boards positions which are available.

The main headache that Lalong is currently facing with these elders/stalwarts is in the area of what appointment they (the elders) get themselves? Already, Buhari has made clear that he will not take any ministerial nominations from state governors – as such, Lalong’s hands are tied as regards who the minister from the state ultimately becomes, especially as there are approximately 21 Plateau elders who have been courting him for such nomination. Now, with the ministerial slot off limits, it appears the only logical positions will be the headship of boards and parastatals – and it remains unclear whether Buhari will take such steer from the states.

Back to the House of Assembly – 21 out of the present 24 members in the House are new members. And within PDP’s 13 members, only Istifanus Mwansat and Daniel Dem are old members, all others are new members who would most likely seek re-election in 2019. As such, they would need to stay relevant in state affairs and will require that PDP’s political and financial clout is still strong at the time of their re-election in 2019. That said, there are no guarantees in that regard, especially seeing how PDP generously or rather sheepishly gifted the rare speakership opportunity away. If PDP had won the speakership of the house, then expect its political clout and to a large extent its financial muscle to still be strong in 2019, but as it stands this may not be the case – and so the re-election bid of these honourable members may become an insurmountable task. By extension, other PDP members of the House of Representatives (Timothy Golu, Istifanus Gyang, Edward Pwajok, Solomon Maren etc) and to a lesser extent the Senate (Jonah Jang, J T Useni) may become particularly vulnerable under the current APC control.

What remains unclear though, is how the PDP-APC cooperation will pan out as we approach 2019! Will there be a fall-out in the acrimonious relationship or will it continue? Does the PDP back Lalong for another term in 2019, hoping that he relinquishes power in 2023? Does the PDP go for the jugular and try to seize power in 2019? Will Lalong consolidate and try to build his own political structures by becoming his own man?…..…….time shall answer these questions!

By Dr. Chinan Mclean

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The PDP-APC Marriage on the Plateau – how long will it last?