In the past, ViewPointNigeria analysed the political dynamics in the House of Assembly –especially as it relates to the “missed opportunity” of the PDP holding the speakership of the House of Assembly (when they clearly had a majority of 13 to 11, but ceded it needlessly to the APC) and how that missed opportunity might potentially herald the change of guards in the Plateau Governorship seat for several years to come – if you are a tennis fan, you may say “Advantage APC”.

In addition to this very complex dynamics is now the unfortunate loss of elder statesman and chairman House Standing committee on Tourism, Hon Godfrey Dashe.

Late Godfrey Dashe who hitherto was elected on the banner of the PDP, was one of the members whose election victory helped to give the PDP a slight majority of 13 to 11 in the house. With his unfortunate death, the tide appears to be turning even more severely against the PDP, with the APC now looking poised to win his seat to even the score at 12 to 12 -again, if you are a tennis fan, you’d say “deuce“.

As you can imagine, a bye election (as prescribed by our constitution) would have to be organised by INEC as soon as possible to fill the seat. This presents a viable opportunity for the APC to overturn the slender advantage of the PDP, leading into political deadlock of 12 to 12. This deadlock, even though unfavourable, still does not present a clear advantage, because “two-third majority” is required to pass bills –a number which the ruling APC party are slightly short of at the moment. That said, one would be foolish to undermine the strength of the APC party, given that they astutely wooed PDP members to vote against their party in the recent speakership election.

Nothing suggests that the APC will definitely win the bye election, but analyses of past trends by our experts suggests that the probability of the seat being won by APC is in the higher seventies (percentage that is), because of the Lalong factor. Lalong is still at the dawn of his administration (barely 3 months in) and still enjoys massive popularity in most parts of the state and the Southern zone –as such pulling his big muscles to win such a seat may not be too difficult. The only down side is that Qu’anpan south has traditionally been a PDP contituency -and changing that overnight, may present some challenges.

As it stands, the PDP’s influence, structures and mechanisms in the state appears to be waning/fading and it potents a rough road ahead for future elections, especially 2019. Massive defections from PDP to APC, which have been a regular occurrence in the state recently also have not helped matters.

Even though, PDP members have recently been regrouping in Abuja and appear to be burying their innate differences, it remains unclear to what extent they can bury these difference and forge a united front –even as a lot of the core members are sympathetic to the present APC government. RIP Godfrey Dashe!!!

Dr. Chinan Mclean

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Matters arising from the unfortunate loss of Hon. Godfrey Dashe