With barely one week to the presidential election (and 3 weeks to the gubernatorial) a lot is at stake. And it is difficult to say which of the two candidates has the edge over the other. But one thing is for sure; both candidates benefit from immense support from their grassroot bases. Lalong for instance boasts swathes of the southern zone, while GNS Pwajok boasts massive support from areas of the northern zone.

As it stands, these support bases (even though) very significant, may not be the sole determinant factors of who emerges governor in Plateau. Our assessment, suggests that the outcome of the presidential election of 28th March 2015, could massively swing the outcome of the Plateau Gubernatorial elections one way or the other. If Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP wins the election, the chances of GNS Pwajok winning will be significantly higher, whereas if the converse was the case, Simon Lalong can count his blessings.

The Plateau political landscape has been rather quiet and devoid of much action lately. Simon Lalong has continued with his rhetoric of “reclaiming” Plateau from the clutches of Gov. Jonah Jang, whilst Senator GNS Pwajok has continued with his own rhetoric of “Redemption” and “Continuity”.

With barely one week to the presidential election (and 3 weeks to the gubernatorial) a lot is at stake. And it is difficult to say which of the two candidates has the edge over the other. But one thing is for sure; both candidates benefit from immense support from their grassroot bases. Lalong for instance boasts swathes of the southern zone, while GNS Pwajok boasts massive support from areas of the northern zone.

As it stands, these support bases (even though) very significant, may not be the sole determinant factors of who emerges governor in Plateau. Our assessment, suggests that the outcome of the presidential election of 28th March 2015, could massively swing the outcome of the Plateau Gubernatorial elections one way or the other. If Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP wins the election, the chances of GNS Pwajok winning will be significantly higher, whereas if the converse was the case, Simon Lalong can count his blessings.

Plateau state has traditionally been a PDP state, but as you are all familiar, events leading up to the emergence of GNS Pwajok as party flagbearer, led to disgruntlement and dissatisfaction within the party, making several core stalwarts defect to the rival APC –and therefore consolidating APC into a more formidable opposition.

There is no doubt that the outcome of the Plateau elections is too difficult to call –but our analysis suggests that the outcome of who wins the Presidential election on the 28th of March will be key to who occupies the little Rayfield Government house. Our analysis is premised on the fact that, if Buhari wins the election for instance, APC in Plateau will sense that the momentum is with them and will capitalise on the Presidential victory to totally usurp the PDP. If Buhari loses however, the task before Simon Lalong will be herculean and difficult –because he would be going against the entire might of the Federal Government and the State Government at the same time. That might, may prove too difficult. That said, it is important to note that there is a lot of disgruntleness in Plateau and if Jega’s stance of using PVCs (with the associated readers) sees the light of day, it may be difficult to stop the APC.

The key area to watch in the election is the central senatorial zone. This zone remains the battle ground zone and would hold the key to who potentially emerges governor. So far, both candidates (Pwajok and Lalong) have picked their running mates from the same zone, indicating the importance of the zone in the 2015 elections. It remains to be seen, but whichever of the two candidates is able to woo the central zone the most, will be definitely reap the fruits.

Over the coming weeks, ViewPointNigeria shall be running regular sound-bites and commentaries about the coming elections, stay with us.

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If Buhari wins next week, APC in Plateau can count their luck