Among prominent political leaders who witnessed the MoU signing were: Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, a former Vice President and presidential aspirant, Atiku Abubakar, PDP National Chairman, Uche Secondus, Buba Galadima, a former Plateau State Governor, Jonah Jang, a former Aviation Minister, Femi Fani-Kayode, Ibrahim Mantu, Sen. Walid Jibril, Sen. David Mark, Tom Ikimi, and Chief Raymond Dokpesi.

Parties that signed the MoU to form the grand coalition with PDP include Reformed All Progressives Congress (rAPC), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Action Alliance (AA), Alliance for Democracy (AD), Africa Democratic Party (ADC), Action Democratic Party (ADP), All Grand Alliance Party (AGAP) and Action Peoples Party (APP).

Others are Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD), Better Nigeria Progressive Party (BNPP), Democratic Alternative (DA), Democratic Peoples Party (DPC), Grand Democratic Party of Nigeria (GDPN), Green Party of Nigeria (GPN), KOWA Party, Labour Party (LP), Mass Action Joint Alliance (MAJA) and Masses Movement of Nigeria (MMN).

Part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the parties reads: “The parties shall ensure that the coalition is committed to working together in support of the single presidential candidate to contest the 2019 Presidential election in order to successfully enthrone a true democrat who will salvage the nation from the misrule of the APC government…”

Although the signing of the MoU is said to be the first among other major steps aimed at producing a consensus presidential candidate that would fly the flag of the merging political parties in the 2019 presidential election, our findings show discordant tunes are emerging as different conditions are being advanced by key stakeholders in the alliance.

Our reporter reliably gathered that specifically, the Buba Galadima-led rAPC members wanted PDP to change its name and also give automatic tickets to chieftains already occupying elective positions they won under the platform of APC who are mostly members of the defunct nPDP that defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013.

However, the PDP which is the main platform upon which the coalition would confront the APC in 2019 is said to have rejected the demands of nPDP members, including the proposals by those who formed the rAPC recently.

This development, observers say, if left unresolved would undoubtedly pose a serious threat to the actualisation of the main objective of the mega alliance.

The nPDP has the likes of Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara; Governors Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto); Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara) and ex- Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto) Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and Danjuma Goje (Gombe), among others.

Saraki is the highest political office holder among the promoters of the alliance with a lot of political baggage; both positive and negative. Being the number three citizen, Saraki, is believed to have been playing key role in the coalition by proxy through Baraje. The foundation for the crisis that engulfed the APC was laid on June 9, 2015, when Saraki romanced the opposition  PDP to emerge as the Senate President.

As things stand now, Saraki is believed to be going into the alliance with a strong base, having a firm control of Kwara politics and sizeable number of his colleagues at the Senate is with him in the journey to sack the APC.

It is widely believed that Saraki in no time will also throw his hat into the presidential race. Sources around him said the Senate President was just counting days to make his presidential ambition public. If he does, he would join other aspirants in the newly formed alliance to oust Buhari.

However, when contacted for comment on the defection and presidential ambition of Saraki, his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Yusuph Olaniyonu, simply said: “That’s journnalist’s permutation. We don’t know anything about that.”

Many have accused the n-PDP, especially Saraki, of being behind the formation of rAPC and at the same time spearheading CUPP movement.

Senator Abdullahi Adamu (APC, Nasarawa West) who spoke at the APC national secretariat on Thursday did not mince words when he said Saraki and others were behind what he called “fraudulent rAPC.”

“He (Saraki) has benefited more than any single new PDP person and he seems to be the arrow head of this resistance of betrayal,” he said.

Discordant tunes over alliance conditions

A source close to a chieftain of the PDP in Kano State said there were disagreements regarding conditions between the PDP national leadership and the rAPC faction which includes Kwankwaso and his supporters.

The source who craved to remain unnamed said the PDP leadership did not accept those conditions because they were unrealistic.

“One is that PDP should change its name and the second is that rAPC’s serving legislators should be given automatic return tickets,” the source said.

Another source said most of the actual people behind the rAPC had remained underground because they wanted to have a solid commitment before appearing in public.

“Remember that only Alhaji Kawu Baraje who is obviously the front for Saraki and Buba Galadima who is among the kitchen cabinet of Kwankwaso appeared during the revolt against the APC and the formation of the rAPC,” the source said.

According to the source, the whole idea about the rAPC is to create division in the APC so that by the time they ultimately seal their deal with the PDP and other parties, most of them holding key positions such as the Senate President and the Speaker would not be impeached.

The PDP was looking at what each individual or groups would bring to the table so that the power sharing formula would be determined, added the source.

For the SDP, the strategic interest of the CUPP alliance is yet to be defined and that they were yet to agree on a common platform not to talk of defining the type of relationships that would exist among them.

The National Secretary of the SDP, Alhaji Shehu Gabam, said the alliance was geared towards the emergence of a consensus presidential candidate to defeat President Buhari in 2019.

Asked whether the SDP would not confuse its supporters with the signing of the MoU when the party would want to field candidates at local, state and federal levels, Gabam said: “There is no confusion. Perhaps, people are getting themselves confused. We were part of those who drafted it. The MoU simply means we will have working relationships. Those relationships have not been defined. There are processes. The strategic interest has not been defined. We will define that when we get there.

“What happened was just a ceremony to say that we would be able to work together. We would have an understanding that perhaps would culminate into presenting one presidential candidate.

“Like I said, we have not even discussed about which platform will be used. So, it’s a convergence of people that came together to seek solidarity within themselves with the ability of networking and working together possibly.

“Like I said, we have not defined those areas. Those areas will be defined. And those will be the determinants of how the MoU will work”, he said.

On what the party stands to benefit from the coalition, he said: “SDP’s stand is just to create a working relationship. If that works, fine. If it doesn’t work, we go by our own principles, philosophy, and ideology as SDP.

“We didn’t compromise any of our principles – our constitution and manifesto. It’s just a working relationship. If it is visible, fine. If it is not, fine. We are very strongly on board. More people are coming into the SDP in mass. We know what we want. We are driven by knowledge and ideas.

“Classically, if you don’t try to bring some parties together to see an understanding or an effort to see that we provide a consensus candidate who understands the peculiarities of Nigeria today, who understands that the country is suffering from insecurity, then we will suffer for it collectively. We must strive to move this country forward.”

Also speaking, Rufai Ahmed, a professor of political science and a key chieftain of the SDP, said alliance was more or less signing of an agreement to cooperate to achieve specific political objectives.

“Under normal circumstances, the alliance is supposed to go from top to bottom and vice versa. Political parties in alliance will agree to field candidates based on their strength at every level. Where they feel a political party has more strength and capacity, it should be allowed to field a candidate. Let’s say at the level of president, I can agree with one in principle. If at the state level, they can also agree.

PDP’s demands

A source in the PDP who does not want to be quoted said the party wanted something different from what transpired in 2013 when the defunct ACN, CPC, ANPP and a section of APGA surrendered their certificates of registration as political parties  and signed their allegiance to the APC.

“What the PDP wants this time around is that all the political parties coming for the alliance should come seamlessly without stringent conditions,” he said.

“We didn’t say they should cease to be a political party; everyone should cash on his popularity in his constituency and mobilise support for the person we want to have as our presidential candidate to defeat Buhari at the centre.

“But when some people start asking for automatic ticket and things like that, they would derail us from our mission; which is establishing government at the centre,” he said.

Most of the key figures in PDP are reluctant to speak on the basic power sharing formula in the new alliance.

However, the National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Kola Ologbondiyan, said the content of the MoU said it all, but that the major preoccupation was to take over power from the APC.

Analysis and findings across parties in the pact reveal that the coalition is in the second phase of the deal after signing the MOU last Monday.

A reliable source in the coalition said the PDP would produce a presidential candidate while the other parties would mobilise the electorate and collectively work for his victory.

“When we get to the bridge we will cross it. The presidential aspirants of the PDP and other political parties who are not able to make it will be allotted other key positions in government, and that I believe, will solve the problem because I believe we are going to win.

“We will always consult widely before reaching decisions and we must be honest and transparent because this is serious business,” he said.

A former presidential candidate and current National Chairman of the Green Party of Nigeria (GPN), Chief Sam Eke, told Journalists in a telephone interview that a Central Working Committee (CWC) had been raised to look into the issue of power sharing.

“Our own position is to make sure that the people of this country are united. The presidential candidate can come from the SDP, LP, ADC or even the NCP.

“But the fact remains that political parties involved will still come together and scrutinise the person whether he reflects the true leader we have been yearning for, for many years,” he said.

He, however, did not mention those involved in the committee.

Similarly, a former National Chairman of Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), Chief Peter Ameh told journalist  that the parties in the coalition were in the second phase of designing a blueprint that would be presented to Nigerians.

“We are not going to run a campaign based on propaganda; we are going to run an alternative solution campaign. There will be a distinctive presentation of how the incoming government from our coalition will be,” he said.

On which party would produce the presidential candidate for the coalition and what other parties stand to benefit, Chief Ameh, who is also the current National Chairman of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA), said there would be power sharing accordingly.

“You don’t go into anything blind. However, that is secondary to the primary consensus of our coalition which is to rescue Nigeria from imminent collapse.  But definitely, we are putting everything on ground so that we don’t come into government and begin to have misunderstanding like the APC.

“We are going to be in the Economic Council, we are going to be in the Federal Executive Council, we are going to be part of the inner workings of government. The purpose of the coalition is to put Nigeria on the right track; it’s to rescue Nigeria from the misfortunes the country finds itself. This is not new to my party.

“In 2007, when we won two governors, there were discussions with the Yar’adua -led administration. We came into government and became part of the National Economic Council.

“My party participated in writing a blueprint for the NEC of that administration. Yes, Yar’adua lost his life, may God grant him mercy and peace of mind, but that is why we didn’t continue on that platform.

“Now, Nigerians are saying we must join hands to salvage the current misfortunes because this country belongs to all of us,” he said.

While the National Chairman of the Labour Party (LP), Alhaji A.A. Salam, is optimistic that everything would work according to plan, his Democratic People’s Congress (DPC), counterpart, Rev. Olusegun Peters, said the parties in the pact were shopping for a presidential candidate who had integrity, clout and political pedigree to dislodge Buhari.

He said, “It doesn’t matter which political party he belongs to, as far as the person is a credible ‎and trusted Nigerian from any of the parties that signed the MoU, we will support him.”

For the National Secretary of the Action Alliance (AA), Mr Vernimbe A. James, the force behind the coalition was the interest of Nigeria, and that the rescue mission must be pursued to a logical conclusion.

Experts react

A political strategist and communication expert, Dr. Abbati Bako, said the alliance between rAPC/nPDP and others was a hoax.

According to him, it is “politically unnatural and uncalled for in modern political democracy.

“These are some of the reasons why experts in global political democracy criticised our democratic transition for the fact that main elements, rules and principles of the game have not been righteously followed by Nigeria’s political stakeholders.

“Lack of leadership-based party ideology seems to be the negative element in heading to truncating democratic system in our dear nation,” he said.

Tracing how previous alliances were done, he said, “historically speaking, the alliance that took place in the 1980s among nine former governors of PRP, UPN, NPP and GNPP was a hoax and didn’t add any value to Nigeria’s democratic transition (then) and that was what exactly resulted to the failure and truncation of democracy in Nigeria in the Second Republic.

“Conclusively, what happened in 1983 when NPN, the party of former President Shagari, defeated the alliance of opposition political parties may happen again this time around (due to incumbency power of APC/)PMB) for the fact that the alliance has not been based on political ideology, patriotism and moving the nation forward.

“And likely if that happens Nigeria’s democratic transition (there is a difference between democratic transition and stable and advanced democracy) may be truncated due to egocentric tendencies of some politicians and other stakeholders,” he said.

Abbati who has a PhD in political democracy and governance in UK, said the solution was for all the political stakeholders to come to terms, conditions, rules and principles of democracy – pure and simple.

Professor Habu Muhammad Fagge, Head of the Department of Political Science in Bayero University Kano (BUK), said the coalition was untimely, ill-conceived and quite different from the coalition of the APC that won in  2015.

Fagge explained that the circumstances that led to the formation of the nPDP were different from those that led to the formation the rAPC, noting that coalition was an amalgamation of politicians who were  not comfortable with Buhari’s administration because of its continued fight against corruption and introduction of some new policies.

“As far as I am concerned, the formation of rAPC is dysfunctional to the existence of our democratic system. This is because members of the coalition would have exhausted all the neccessary avenues that are available within the APC as a ruling party to resolve their differences amicably.

“But now that the 2019 general elections are fast approaching they found themselves in a dilemma that led to the formation rAPC. One, the coalition is untimely  and may not change the political landscape of Nigeria in 2019 as the nPDP did in 2015. This is because the coalition has numerous politicians that have divergent interests. And the interest of the top-ranking politicians among them is to contest for president in the next general elections,” he said.

Supporters of the ruling APC have described  the ‘romance’ among the rAPC, PDP and others as a disaster, saying they wanted to copy what the defunct ACN, CPC, ANPP and a section of APGA did in 2013 but failed woefully.

According to them, their arrowhead, Engr. Buba Galadima, and his cohorts were bereft of ideas as to what they want to achieve.

Sharon Faliya Cham, who is theNational Coordinator, Vanguards for the Protection of Democracy in Nigeria, said: “To the best of my knowledge, something like this has never ever happened before, where some ruling party members will willfully create a faction, take the same faction to form a so-called coalition or alliance with the leading opposition party, and then take the same ruling party from which they broke to court asking that the court declare them as the genuine leaders of the party they have broken from.

“It’s the same as eating your cake and having it, or the same as them trying to approbate and reprobate over an anomaly completely brewed by them. Besides that, this is a classic case of unbridled mischief by beneficiaries of a political lifeline against a platform that gave them a lifeline when their political fortune was down and out prior to the 2015 elections.”

“I believe that they will fail in the courts, as the courts will clearly see that their lawsuits against the APC are simply laced with mischief. Nothing will come out of it. But the APC should learn a good lesson here. They should be mindful of the kind of defectors they receive, especially if the defectors are known not to possess progressive ideals,” he said.

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2019: Sharing formula threatens coalition against Buhari